Agenda

Schedule

Full-day Events with Awesome Speakers

Monday, November 26

9:40 AM - 10:20 AM
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Keynote Speaker Ganesh C. Bora photo

Ganesh C. Bora

Mississippi State University, USA

Title

Data Driven Digital Smart Farming to Optimize Agricultural Resources in Mitigating Climate Change

Biography

Dr. Ganesh Bora is Precision Agricultural Program Leader and an Associate Professor of Precision Agriculture and Machinery Systems at Mississippi State University, USA. He is the Chair of USDA Committee NCERA180: Precision Agriculture Technologies for Food, Fiber, and Energy Production. A highly regarded experienced professor for 25 years, he conducts research in mitigation of climate change, telemetry, UAS, data management, precision planting, energy savings through auto-guidance, sensing techniques for VRT, renewable energy. He was the Director of NDSU’s Bio-Imaging and Sensing Center from 2010 to 2016. Received Superior Paper and AE50 award from ASABE. He has maintained excellent global presence, received patent in Kazakhstan and conducted workshops in Vietnam, Thailand, India and Bangladesh; besides teaching “Advanced Agricultural Technology Management” in Kazakhstan. He co-chaired the “Mechanization and Precision Agriculture” committee in ‘Engineering and Technology Innovation for Global Food Security,’ in South Africa. He received his PhD from Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA.

 

Abstract

Data-driven digital farming have been adopted by progressive farmers to optimize the use of chemicals and fertilizer to reduce cost and increase crop yield. Energy input in agriculture has increased tremendously, and accounts for about 17% of total U.S. energy consumption. Practical, yet innovative solutions will be required if we are to meet growing demand for food in changing climate that reduces yields. Wide-spread adoption of precision agriculture (PA) is a practical solution to optimize the benefit-to-cost ratio in agriculture. PA optimizes input use-efficiency for resources such as fertilizer, chemicals, seeds and irrigation water to reduce crop production costs and to enhance crop yield while simultaneously reducing harmful environmental costs associated with inefficient use of agricultural inputs. Even assuming only 10% of the US farms adopt PA technologies, 61 million liters of fuel, 1.8 million kg of insecticide and 1.9 million liters of herbicide can be saved annually, reducing not only farm operating costs but also the cost to human and ecosystem health related to agricultural pollution. Additionally, PA has great potential to reduce and offset GHG emissions by optimizing chemicals, fertilizer and water applications through variable rate application. Smart farming technologies greatly aid in mitigating climate change impacted by agriculture.

10:20 - 11:00
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Keynote Speaker Raeesa Moolla photo

Raeesa Moolla

University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa

Title

Risk assessment of BTEX concentrations on communities around an International Airport in South Africa

Biography

Raeesa Moolla attained her PhD at the age of 30, at the University of the Witwatersrand, where she is now a tenured lecturer. Her research interests lie in hotspot monitoring and modelling of urban-scale air pollution and its impacts on human health; specifically related to VOC emissions and pollution from the transport sectors. She is also involved in surface and tropospheric ozone research; and is a part of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry project (a non-profit organization). Dr. Moolla currently has over 25 publications and conference proceedings to her name, with an additional five publications being reviewed.

Abstract

Air traffic has had a prolific increase over the years in response to economic growth. The increase in demand for aircraft use requires expansion of the existing airports and development of new ones. Environmental concerns arise because airports contribute to the poor air quality in their vicinities because of emission of toxic chemicals which are detrimental to the health of the residents (Masiol, and Harrison, 2014). The dispersion of these chemicals is affected by meteorological conditions prevailing in the area (viz. temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation), as these lead to dilution and photochemical reactions of the pollutants (Kim, Nakada, Wayson, et. al., 2015). Little information is available on the potential health risks of these pollutants (Moolla, Curtis and Knight, 2015) and evidence suggests that with climate change, VOCs emissions are set to rise.

A risk assessment study was conducted in two informal settlements, Malatjie and Joe Slovo, in Johannesburg, South Africa, in close proximity of the International Airport. Through use of Radiello passive samplers, BTEX concentrations were monitored in each settlement. Meteorological data was obtained from the South African Weather Service, to assess the wind direction and speed affecting dispersion of the VOCs. An average of 12.12 µg/m3, 25.59 µg/m3, 3.78 µg/m3 and 43 µg/m3 for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene concentrations respectively; were monitored for Malatjie area. An average of 4.78 µg/m3, 8.12 µg/m3, 2.14 µg/m3 and 6.47 µg/m3 for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene concentrations respectively; for Joe Slovo settlement were obtained. The prevailing wind direction was north with very light wind speeds of between 0.50 and 2.10 m.s-1. Furthermore, it was established that the airport was not the sole contributor to the BTEX concentrations; and that other sources were involved. However, the risk assessment showed that there were no obvious non-cancer risks for both areas but the cancer-risk was heightened, underlining a public health concern, and a need for further investigation.

  • Manifestation of Climatic Change | Regenerative Agriculture to Reverse Climate Change | CO2 Capture and Sequestration | Climate Change & Health Consequences | Global Warming | Climate Change & Adaptability Development | Climate Change and Sustainability | Industry, Industrialization, & Climate Change | Climate Change & Adaptability Development | Climate Change & Biodiversity
    Location: Tokyo, Japan
Speaker

Chair

Shoichiro Ozaki

The Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN), Japan

Speaker

Co-Chair

Jianmin Jiang

Beijing Meteorological College, China

Session Introduction: Monday, November 26

11:15 - 11:35
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Shoichiro Ozaki photo

Shoichiro Ozaki

The Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN), Japan

Title

Climate Can Be Regulated by Effective Use of NOx And Waste Water NP

Biography

Ozaki’s primary contribution is to achieve the first total synthesis of optically active myo-inositol trisphosphate, and a wide range of other inositol phosphates and lipids for subsequent physiological studies. Ozaki discovered DAB: regulator of Ca2+ release, anti-aging reagents. Ozaki is proposing method to protect global warming. His method is promotion of CO2 assimilation by effective use of NOx and drainage nitrogen, phosphorous, many countries hating NOx as pollution gas and eliminating by ammonia. Ozaki is considering that NOx is best promotor of CO2 assimilation

Abstract

About 510 billion tone CO2 is produced by burning of fossil fuel and respiration of animal. CO2 142 billion tone increased in 2017. If we can increase fixing of CO2 by promotion of CO2 assimilation, global warming will be protected. To promote CO2 assimilation, supply of nutrient N and P is essential. 14.4 billion tone NOx is produced when 140 billion fossil fuels is burned. Many governments are eliminating NOx and NP in drainage as pollution substances. NOx and NP in drainage are promotor of CO2 assimilation, fertilizer of plant growth. Therefore, these action are promoting global warming. NOx elimination is giving bad effect on grain, fish production, electricity price, GDP growth rate. By effective use of NOx and waste water NP, we can increase plankton CO2 assimilation at sea. Stopping of NOx elimination and stopping of waste water purification is easy method to protect global warming and to regulate climate.

11:35 - 11:55
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Jianmin Jiang photo

Jianmin Jiang

Beijing Meteorological College, China

Title

Coherency Analysis of Trend Change-Points in Monthly Temperature between the Global Warming and in China Mainland

Biography

Jianmin Jiang received M.S. degree in 1978 from Peking University in China, and completed a Post-doctor in 2002 from University of Hawaii in USA. He was a professor at former Beijing Meteorological College and a visiting scholar to Meteorological Office College of UK and to Hamburg University in Germany. After retiring in 1999, he visited to USA and completed a post-doctor work at University of Hawaii and NOAA. His research interests are mainly in climate changes, statistical analyses and especially in Change point analyses.

Abstract

This paper introduces the algorithm of scanning detection for change-points in subsample trends, which was developed by this author, and applying to monthly temperature series of both the global warming and in China mainland for 1951/1 -- 2017/12. The main results were obtained as follows:

  • Nine change-points, then 10 sub-periods for the global warming and 8 change-points, then 9 episodes for China mainland were detected out respectively;
  • The coherency contour pattern shows that the major areas were positive, which suggest the trend-change directions were in phase, but that in some short-periods were negative, which denote the trend-changes were out of phase;
  • The negative coherency occurred around 1956-1960, 1963-1968, 1774-1978, 1997-2000,
  • 2006-2010 and 2014-2017 (see figure below). The reason why the negative coherency happened are needed to be investigated further.
  • The last obvious decline in the global warming is also needed to be observed and concerned further, but it has not yet appeared in China mainland so far.

11:55 - 12:15
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Vladimir A. Babeshko photo

Vladimir A. Babeshko

Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Title

Some Mechanical Analogy and The Climate Anomalies

Biography

Vladimir Babeshko has completed his pHD (Doctor of Mechanics) in 1974 from  Russian Academy of Sciences. During many years he is a chief of Scientific-Research Center for Forecasting and Preventing Geoecological and Technologenic Disasters Kuban State University and Southern Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences.He has 20 patents, published 7 monographs and more than 450 papers in reputed journals such as Russian Academy of Sciences and many others.

Abstract

A It is showed that researches of some technical tasks can be useful in some adjoined spheres. Combined boundary task of thermal conductivity in layer is observed as an example.  It’s showed that the result, obtained by means of researches of this boundary task, are correlated as analogue with some phenomena in the environment, strict explanations of which don’t exist.  For example, there is an explanation of well- known phenomenon in abroad and in our country “Indian summer” as steady anticyclone in hydrometeorological literature.  But there is no any physico-mathematical researches of this phenomenon. It’s interested to try to find analogues for other phenomena.  Analogues are found by observing of mixed boundary task for parabolic equation about expanding of warmth in the layer in suggestion of change of boundary conditions on one of the layer border.  It has been established that it is convenient to describe a number of natural anomalous processes, which consist in localizing the energy within certain spatial regions, as a result of manifestation of a natural virus, as a vibrio virus in mechanics. The natural virus makes it possible to reveal the conditions of occurrence of anomalies and, thus, to search for various ways of decreasing fatal natural processes. Introduction of natural virus is a result of detecting new regularities in the natural processes, which are reasonably adequately describes by mixed boundary-value problems in a great variety of fields. It is convenient to represent these regularities by reproducing the concept of a natural virus, and to interpret the occurrence of anomalies as its manifestation at different levels up to an anomalous state of the natural processes under consideration. It can assert that the distribution of the natural-process energy is reasonably uniform in a region when the virus does not manifest itself. As the virus manifests itself, the process energy is localized in one or several zones of the region. At the limit, the localization results in anomalous behavior of the natural process in the indicated zone or outside of it depending on the natural-process type.

12:15 - 12:35
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Yakubu Muntaka Musah photo

Yakubu Muntaka Musah

YM Ventures, Ghana

Title

Climate Change, Its Effects and Possible Solutions on Our Environment

Biography

Yakubu Muntaka Musah is my name, MBA  and BBA . I completed my Bachelor Degree at University  of professional studies, accra in August 2013 with distinction. A few years after my completion, I engaged in many academic activities including attending a Bio plastic conference in 2017, in Paris, France and gave an oral presentation, to which I was awarded the Student Ambassador for the conference. My vision is to see the environment green, hence my award as the student facilitator in the just ended Biofuel conference in Edinburg, Scotland.

 

Abstract

Climate change may refer to a change in the average weather condition or in the time variation of weather within the context of longer term average condition. Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation, and other human activities that have been identified as primary causes of ongoing climate change, often referred to as global warming. There is no doubt that the impact of climate change are beginning to manifest on the entire globe and more particularly on the developing nations. Climate change and climate variability may pose serious challenge to national development. Government and other state agencies have adopted measures to minimize the impact of climate change due to its threat to global development and effort to end poverty. Without urgent action, climate impact could push an additional 100 million people into poverty by 2030.

Climate change is a major issue that affects farmer’s especially rural farmers within our communities.  Farmer’s already struggle to get a fair price for their goods, safe guard against weather and pest to stay in business. The impact of climate change is poised to make matters worse for young farmers. This is because there would be a low in production pattern due to higher temperature. These low production patterns as a result of climate change have negative consequences on our farmer’s income. Environmental issues is one major issues caused by climate change. The impact of climate change has led to the various erosion caused either by human activities or natural disaster. A human activity such as sand winning and illegal mining has a negative consequence on our environmental landscape such as erosion. A natural environmental issue such as volcanic reaction also has negative impact on the environment. One other issue of climate change is economic issues. The economy is likely to setback if agricultural sector that contributes tremendously to the Gross Domestic Product is affected by climate change. This is possible because when there is a change in temperature and farmers yield declined, this decline have negative impact on the performance of the economy. Many communities will be force to move as they are exposed to rising sea levels, drought etc. as a result of climate change impact. Communities are also susceptible to the health concern associated with climate change such as heat related ailment from higher temperature, malnourishment due to increase strain of food. Climate change has the effect of changing the habitat of wildlife from their natural location and more especially hunting wildlife illegally. The issue of illegal hunting of wildlife has a negative effect on the environment. This is because the setting of bush fires to trace wildfire degrades the environment which causes excessive heat temperature leading to global warming. The increasing use of traditional crude to power our thermal plants has the effects of depleting the ozone layers which give rise to global warming which eventually leads to variability in the environment. So the effects of climate change have adverse effects on the environment, economy and the health of people. To this end, a number of measures needs to be considered to revert the adverse effects of climate change and global warming, In addition, industries and factories should also find alternative source of energy in powering their thermal. If the use of traditional crude is to be used, they should not go beyond certain level as a way of reducing the effects on climate change. Moreover, thermal plants and vehicles should be manufactured to use other sources of energy rather than our traditional crude due to its effects on the environment. Also, countries can sign a memorandum of understanding on the level of crude to use within a country in a year, so that countries under the agreement would not go beyond the agreed use of crude as a convenient way of reducing the effects of climate change. If any countries go beyond the agreed use of crude, sanctions should be impose and a fine paid. In effects, these are the effects of climate change and its possible solutions to reduce the effects to ensure environmental and health sustainability.

12:35 - 12:55
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Abubakar Zakaria photo

Abubakar Zakaria

YM Ventures, Ghana

Title

Environmental Effect of Climate Change

Biography

Abubakar Zakaria holding Bachelor of Administration certificate from University of professional studies and he has completed his Master’s Degree at the same University in August . A few years after my completion, I engaged in many academic activities. As an ardent and disciplinary leader, my vision is to encourage the young generation to succeed in their attempt to climb the academic ladder. My interest is to engage in panel discussion towards achieving environmental excellence.

 

Abstract

Environmental effect of climate change is the release of contaminated substances into the environment that causes adverse change. It can take several forms ranging from chemical substances, noise, heat, light, car pollution etc. climate change comes from both human made sources such as mining, Agricultural, industries, construction among others. Motor vehicle pollution are the most leading cause of climate change across the world. China, japan united states are the world leaders in air pollution. About 400 million metric tons of waste are generated each year from waste that pollute the environment. It is of no doubt that the frequent environmental pollution leads to climate change which adversely have effects on the lives of human. Climate change may refer to a change in the average weather condition . Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation, and other human activities that have been identified as primary causes of on-going climate change, often referred to as global warming. Climate change is also the major cause of environmental pollution. The impact of climate change has led to the various erosion caused either by human activities or natural disaster. Human activities such as sand winning and illegal mining have a negative consequence on our environmental landscape such as erosion. Climate change is also the cause of global warming through the depletion of the ozone layer. The excessive vehicular smoke and industrial smoke has major effects on our environment. This is cause by the depletion of the ozone’s layer. The increasing use of traditional crude to power our thermal plants has the effects of depleting the ozone layers which give rise to global warming which eventually leads to variability in the environment. So the effects of climate change have adverse effects on the environment, economy and the health of people. Numerous factors have been adopted to reduce the effect of climate change and global warming. Among it is as follows;

  • The use of biofuel and bioenergy as an alternative source of energy should be encouraged and use. The use of biofuel has been considered as the most cleaner’s source of energy which is environmentally friendly than our traditional use of crude.
  • In addition, industries and factories should also find alternative source of energy in powering their thermal. If the use of traditional crude is to be used, they should not go beyond certain level as a way of reducing the effects on environmental pollution

14:00 - 15:00
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Vladimir A. Babeshko photo

Vladimir A. Babeshko

Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Title

New Mechanics-Mathematical Methods in Natural Processes

Biography

Vladimir Babeshko has completed his HD (Doctor of Mechanics) in 1974 from Russian Academy of Sciences. During many years he is a chief of Scientific-Research Center for Forecasting and Preventing Geo-ecological and Technologic Disasters Kuban State University and Southern Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences. He has 20 patents, published 7 monographs and more than 450 papers in reputed journals such as Russian Academy of Sciences and many others.

Abstract

A new mathematical method elaborated in Russia, that has mechanical basis and is called the method of block element, is presented in this report. Its elaboration demanded to include areas of mathematics of high level: topology, external analysis, factorization methods, integral geometry, automorphisms and other areas of mathematics. The numerical-analytical method is created to explore and solve any spatial boundary problems for systems of differential equations in partial derivatives, linear and nonlinear. Its difference from the finite and boundary element methods consists in absence of any discretization. It solves precisely all boundary problems which are solved precisely by other methods, for example, separation of variables. Among advantages of the method are mechanical characteristics detected in the process of solving problems, tension and displacement, and not density on the boundaries of domains of boundary problems, lack of necessity of diagonalization of operators of the system of differential equations, opportunity to use numerous works of scientists-mechanics in areas of differential and integral equations on some stages of applying the method. The method allows to carry out investigation in conversational mode, that allows to detect regularities connected with characteristics of solution and its characteristics. There are also particular difficulties in applying the method of block element, which are caused in the first place by requirement of quite high level of knowledge of mathematics used by its application.
The results of applying this mechanics-mathematical approach to different boundary problems which were not studied before have been gotten. These are problems of the strength theory, materials science, seismology, climatology, nanomaterials. Problems of seismology are connected with mechanical harbinger of seismicity based on the estimate of concentration of strains on tectonic faults.

15:00 - 15:20
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Dina Hasan Alnahdy photo

Dina Hasan Alnahdy

Environmental Technology Co.Ltd (ENTEC), Saudi Arabia

Title

Shifting Businesses to Sustainability in the Heat of Climate Change in 3rd World Countries

Biography

Dina Hasan Alnahdy co-founded "ENTEC" in 1995. Masters in Environmental Management, an honorary doctorate in Environmental affairs and sustainable development from the U.N.F.  as well as being a certified LEED consultant and OSHA certified. Working as a consultant since 2010 dedicated to improving the environment by offering sustainable environmental and Green economical solutions to clients both private and governmental sectors in the Mena region. Dina is also president of the environmental committee in Jeddah chamber of commerce K.S.A. as well as board member in national association for environment and renewable energy cooperative association

Abstract

The present approach to climate change issues are mostly with an environmental and scientific approach which is not grasping the industrialists and economists attention, I will be highlighting the economical disadvantages of climate change and advantages to re-modification solutions, and how to utilize the latest studies & technologies and the benefits of circular economy. If we continue on the current path, we will not meet the Global goals. To help drive the economic growth we must boost the benchmarking competitiveness, it will actually drive reform. We have to find ways to scale up corporate engagement in a situation where 60% of businesses worldwide that are not engaged become stakeholders. Our challenge now is to mobilize action that will bring the different agendas meaningfully and tangibly to life. I call on Governments and stakeholders to recognize the gaps identified in the UNEP and SDG reports - in implementation, financing and politics- to now join hands to fulfil this vision and keep the united promise. Since K.S.A. is the largest most dominant country in the middle east I will show case the third national communication of Saudi Arabia on climate change and their vision 2030 KPI’s, as well as the latest projects using environmentally sustainable technologies and methods to be more effective and efficient as well as diverting to renewable energy and water reuse.

15:20 - 15:40
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Dorottya Bekesi photo

Dorottya Bekesi

Szent Istvan University, Hungary

Title

Meeting the Post-Paris Climate Challenge from a Sustainable Land-Use perspective: Urban Greening Corridors as Co-benefit Infrastructure for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Mitigation and Adaptation

Biography

Dorottya Bekesi is a graduating landscape architect master student. She has completed her BSc. studies at the Corvinus University of Budapest. Her research into the New National Excellence Program was published in 2017 which is the underline of her master thesis.

Abstract

The 2017 Paris Climate Accord (Paris Agreement) sets measurable benchmarks for avoiding unsustainable climate catastrophe. This is an international challenge, but actions take root locally. California is a worldwide leader in aggressive GHG-reduction policies steering billions of dollars for “Climate Investment” projects. From a local perspective, there is a challenge of developing projects that create a sufficient impact in GHG mitigation commensurate with global goals. Planners struggle between the interests of “business-as-usual” economics versus transformative actions. We highlight, distinct from typical energy-efficiency approaches, an approach of establishing inter-connected urban greening corridors along utility infrastructure rights-of-way. These corridors are often outside the domain of private development but are strategically woven throughout the urban fabric. These corridors can function as critical GHG sinks and as a foundation for alternative active transit. The recently funded San Leandro Creek Urban Greening Project (in Oakland, California) will sequester 1082,79 MtCO2e of GHG via a dense corridor of trees, vegetated swales and green spaces along a one-mile creek-side zone and reduce 60,82 MtCO2e of GHG by establishing a new bicycle/pedestrian route off-setting 7859 Average Annual Auto VMT. This project is a template for developing an urban-wide corridor system. Our research demonstrates that 8-10 greening corridors will enable Oakland to meet its climate action goals by 2030 in alignment with the Paris agreements.

15:40 - 16:00
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Tao Gao photo

Tao Gao

Meteorological Institute of Inner Mongolia, CMA, China

Title

A Seasonal Forecast Scheme for Inner Mongolia Spring Drought (Part-I: Dynamic characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and forecast signals)

Biography

Tao Gao is now working in the Meteorological Institute of Inner Mongolia, CMA and has her expertise in climate variations and regional climate prediction research direction, especially in dust storm and drought studies for northern China and Inner Mongolia, China. She had visited the Institute of Meteorological and Physics, Agricultural and Science University of Vienna, Austria, Climate Research Division, Science & Technology Branch, Environment Canada, and the Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, USA as a visiting or a senior visiting scholars supported by China Scholarship Council.  

Abstract

This study analyzed the atmospheric evolutionary characteristics of insufficient rainfall that leads to spring drought in Inner Mongolia, China. The results revealed that a weakened western Pacific subtropical high and an enlarged North Polar vortex with a western position of the East Asian trough generally result in unfavorable moisture transportation for spring precipitation in IM. It was found that abnormal sea surface temperature in several crucial ocean areas triggers an irregular atmospheric circulation over the Eurasian continent and the Pacific region. Lower SST during the previous autumn over tropical regions of the central-eastern Pacific and Indian oceans induce a strong Walker circulation, corresponding to a weak and southeastward-retreating subtropical high over the western Pacific during the following winter and spring. Another crucial area is the central region of the North Atlantic Ocean. Abnormally low SST of the ocean area during the preceding autumn causes the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern (the index of which is issued on the website of the Climate Prediction Center, USA) changes to a positive phase, which leads to a weak westerly over the Eurasian continent. In this case, the easterly over the North Pole becomes stronger than normal, resulting in an extended North Polar vortex during the following spring. In addition, SST differences during the previous December between the middle-eastern tropical and northwestern regions of the Pacific Ocean reflect variations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, causing the East Asian trough to move to a western position during the following spring.

16:15 - 16:35
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Tao Gao photo

Tao Gao

Meteorological Institute of Inner Mongolia, CMA, China

Title

A Seasonal Forecast Scheme for Inner Mongolia Spring Drought (Part-II: A logical reasoning evidence-based method for spring predictions)

Biography

Tao Gao is now working in the Meteorological Institute of Inner Mongolia, CMA and has her expertise in climate variations and regional climate prediction research direction, especially in dust storm and drought studies for northern China and Inner Mongolia, China. She had visited the Institute of Meteorological and Physics, Agricultural and Science University of Vienna, Austria, Climate Research Division, Science & Technology Branch, Environment Canada, and the Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, USA as a visiting or a senior visiting scholars supported by China Scholarship Council.

Abstract

Spring precipitation is the predominant factor that controls meteorological drought in Inner Mongolia (IM), China. This study used the anomaly percentage of spring precipitation (PAP) as a drought index to measure spring drought. A scheme for forecasting seasonal drought was designed based on evidence of spring drought occurrence and speculative reasoning methods introduced in computer artificial intelligence theory. Forecast signals with sufficient lead-time for predictions of spring drought were extracted from eight crucial areas of oceans and 500-hPa geopotential height. Using standardized values, these signals were synthesized into three examples of spring drought evidence (SDE) depending on their primary effects on three major atmospheric circulation components of spring precipitation in IM: the western Pacific subtropical high, North Polar vortex, and East Asian trough. Thresholds for the SDE were determined following numerical analyses of the influential factors. Furthermore, five logical reasoning rules for distinguishing the occurrence of SDE were designed after examining all possible combined cases. The degree of confidence in the rules was determined based on estimations of their prior probabilities. Then, an optimized logical reasoning scheme was identified for judging the possibility of spring drought. The scheme was successful in hindcast predictions of 11 of the 16 (accuracy: 68.8%) spring droughts that have occurred during 1960–2009. Moreover, the accuracy ratio for the same period was 82.0% for drought (PAP ≤ -20%) or not (PAP > -20%). Predictions for the recent six-year period (2010–2015) demonstrated successful outcomes.

16:35 - 16:55
Meetings International - Climate Change 2018 Conference Session Speaker Pramod Lamsal photo

Pramod Lamsal

University of New England, Australia

Title

Himalayan Region, Climate Change and Future Dynamics of Invasive Species

Biography

Pramod Lamsal will soon be completing his PhD from the University of New England, New South Wales, Australia. His area of research interest is climate change impacts in the Himalayan ecosystems. He has published more than 12 peer reviewed papers in reputed journals.

Abstract

Invasive species are known to be affected by climate change. However, its dynamics in the context of Himalayan region is studied less. Therefore, this research investigates the current and future habitat of five major invasive alien plant species (IAPS), namely Ageratina adenophora, Ageratum conyzoides, Chromolaena odorata, Lantana camara, and Parthenium hysterophorus, found in the Himalayan  region. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) was used to model the five IAPS under 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the year 2070 employing MIROC5 global climate model (GCM). The results indicate that A. conyzoides and P. hysterophorus will lose overall suitable area whereas A. adenophora, C. odorata and L. camara will gain overall suitable area. Similarly, majority of current habitat of the five species will remain as stable in the future, especially in the southern foothill while suitability will decrease with increasing elevation. Changes in invasion dynamics, as projected by this study, will affect existing ecosystems and their services in the region that is interlinked to human welfare. Trans-boundary response strategies could buffer some of the likely invasion effect to the Himalayan landscape.